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CLAUDE TRADER

ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Claude Trader's AI engines analyze 13 categories of market data to generate stock assessments. Below is a complete breakdown of every data point and source our system considers. This transparency helps you understand what drives each recommendation — and why you should always verify with your own research.

🏛️ 1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
WHAT WE TRACK
  • GDP growth rate (quarterly & annual)
  • Inflation rate (CPI, PPI, PCE)
  • Interest rates & central bank decisions
  • Unemployment rate & jobless claims
  • Money supply (M1, M2)
  • Trade balance & current account deficit
  • Consumer confidence index
  • Manufacturing & services PMI
  • Retail sales data
  • Housing starts & building permits
RESOURCES
  • fred.stlouisfed.org — Federal Reserve Economic Data
  • bls.gov — US Bureau of Labor Statistics (jobs, CPI)
  • bea.gov — Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, PCE)
  • imf.org/en/Data — Global economic data
  • worldbank.org/en/research — World development indicators
  • tradingeconomics.com — All countries' indicators in one place
  • oecd.org/statistics — OECD member country data
🏦 2. CENTRAL BANK & MONETARY POLICY
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Fed Funds Rate decisions (US)
  • FOMC meeting minutes & statements
  • Quantitative easing/tightening programs
  • Forward guidance language
  • ECB, BOJ, BOE, PBOC decisions
  • Yield curve shape (normal vs. inverted)
  • Treasury auction results
RESOURCES
  • federalreserve.gov — Fed statements, minutes, Beige Book
  • ecb.europa.eu — European Central Bank
  • bankofengland.co.uk — Bank of England
  • boj.or.jp/en — Bank of Japan
  • cmegroup.com/fedwatch — FedWatch tool (rate hike probability)
  • treasury.gov — Treasury yields & auctions
🗳️ 3. POLITICAL & ELECTORAL EVENTS
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Election calendars (local, national, global)
  • Polling data & prediction markets
  • Policy platforms of candidates
  • Legislative agendas & bill tracking
  • Regulatory appointments (SEC chair, Fed nominees)
  • Congressional committee hearings
  • Executive orders & regulatory rulings
  • Sanctions announcements
RESOURCES
  • congress.gov — All US bills, laws, committee activities
  • federalregister.gov — All US regulatory changes
  • politico.com — Policy & political news
  • thehill.com — US political news
  • elections.intldemocracy.org — Global election calendar
  • electionguide.org — Worldwide upcoming elections
  • polymarket.com — Prediction markets
  • realclearpolitics.com — Polling aggregator
⚔️ 4. GEOPOLITICAL RISK & CONFLICTS
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Active military conflicts & flashpoints
  • Diplomatic relations & sanctions
  • Trade wars & tariff changes
  • Territorial disputes
  • Alliance shifts (NATO, BRICS, etc.)
  • Terrorist activity indexes
  • Nuclear threat assessments
  • Coup risks in emerging markets
RESOURCES
  • crisisgroup.org — International Crisis Group conflict tracker
  • acleddata.com — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
  • cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker — Council on Foreign Relations
  • geopoliticalfutures.com — Geopolitical analysis
  • sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov — US Treasury sanctions list
📊 5. CORPORATE FUNDAMENTALS & FILINGS
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Earnings reports (EPS, revenue, guidance)
  • Balance sheets (debt levels, cash positions)
  • Cash flow statements
  • Insider buying/selling activity
  • SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, 13-F)
  • Analyst upgrades/downgrades
  • Short interest data
  • Institutional ownership changes
  • Dividend history & payout ratios
  • Share buyback programs
RESOURCES
  • sec.gov/edgar — All US company filings (free, primary source)
  • macrotrends.net — Historical financial data, charts
  • stockanalysis.com — Free financials & ratios
  • finviz.com — Stock screener & fundamentals
  • openinsider.com — Insider trading tracker
  • fintel.io — Institutional ownership & short interest
  • 13f.info — Hedge fund 13-F filings tracker
🏢 6. INSTITUTIONAL & BIG MONEY MOVES
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Warren Buffett/Berkshire 13-F filings
  • Hedge fund quarterly disclosures
  • Sovereign wealth fund investments
  • Pension fund allocations
  • ETF fund flows
  • Options activity (unusual volume)
  • Dark pool transactions
  • Goldman, JPMorgan, BlackRock outlooks
RESOURCES
  • whalewisdom.com — Hedge fund holdings tracker
  • dataroma.com — Superinvestor portfolios
  • gurufocus.com — Guru investor portfolios
  • unusualwhales.com — Options flow & congressional trades
  • etf.com — ETF flows & holdings
  • swfinstitute.org — Sovereign wealth fund tracker
  • quiverquant.com — Congressional stock trades, lobbying data
🏛️ 7. CONGRESSIONAL & GOVERNMENT TRADING
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Stock trades by US senators & representatives
  • Lobbying spending by industry
  • Government contracts awarded
  • Infrastructure & spending bills
RESOURCES
  • housestockwatcher.com — House member trades
  • senatestockwatcher.com — Senate member trades
  • capitoltrades.com — Both chambers combined
  • opensecrets.org — Lobbying, campaign finance
  • usaspending.gov — Government contracts & grants
📈 8. MARKET SENTIMENT & TECHNICAL DATA
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Fear & Greed Index
  • VIX (volatility index)
  • Put/Call ratio
  • Advance/Decline line
  • Bull/Bear ratio (AAII survey)
  • Margin debt levels
  • Money market fund flows
  • Market breadth indicators
RESOURCES
  • money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed — Fear & Greed Index
  • cboe.com/vix — VIX data
  • aaii.com/sentimentsurvey — Investor sentiment survey
  • finra.org/investors/tools — Margin statistics
  • stockcharts.com — Technical analysis tools
  • tradingview.com — Charts & technical indicators
🌍 9. SECTOR-SPECIFIC INTELLIGENCE
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Energy: oil inventory (EIA weekly), OPEC decisions, natural gas storage
  • Technology: semiconductor sales, patent filings, AI investment flows
  • Real estate: Case-Shiller index, mortgage rates, vacancy rates
  • Healthcare: FDA approvals, drug pipeline data, CMS rule changes
  • Finance: bank stress tests, credit default swaps, loan delinquency rates
  • Agriculture: USDA crop reports, weather patterns, commodity futures
RESOURCES
  • eia.gov — Energy Information Administration
  • usda.gov/topics/farming/crop-production — Crop reports
  • fda.gov/patients/drug-approvals-and-databases — FDA pipeline
  • nar.realtor/research-and-statistics — Real estate data
  • spglobal.com/spdji — S&P sector indexes
💱 10. CURRENCY & COMMODITIES
WHAT WE TRACK
  • US Dollar Index (DXY)
  • Currency pair movements (USD/CNY, EUR/USD)
  • Gold & silver prices
  • Oil & natural gas prices
  • Copper (global growth indicator)
  • Commodity futures curves
  • Crypto market cap & Bitcoin dominance
RESOURCES
  • investing.com — All currencies, commodities, futures
  • xe.com — Currency exchange rates
  • kitco.com — Precious metals
  • cmegroup.com — Futures data
  • coinmarketcap.com — Crypto market data
📰 11. NEWS & REAL-TIME INTELLIGENCE
RESOURCES
  • reuters.com — Financial wire service
  • bloomberg.com — Premium financial news
  • ft.com — Financial Times
  • wsj.com — Wall Street Journal
  • apnews.com — Breaking news (free)
  • seekingalpha.com — Investor-focused analysis
  • marketwatch.com — Free market news
🔬 12. RESEARCH REPORTS & THINK TANKS
RESOURCES
  • brookings.edu — Economic & policy research
  • nber.org — National Bureau of Economic Research
  • piie.com — Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • mckinsey.com/insights — Industry outlook reports
  • pwc.com/gx/en/research-and-insights — Sector reports
  • goldmansachs.com/insights — GS economic research
⚠️ 13. RISK & CRISIS MONITORING
WHAT WE TRACK
  • Credit rating changes (Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
  • Corporate bankruptcy filings
  • Bank failure watch
  • Climate & natural disaster risk
  • Pandemic/health risk indicators
  • Supply chain disruption indexes
RESOURCES
  • fitchratings.com — Fitch credit ratings
  • moodys.com — Moody's credit ratings
  • fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures — Bank failures
  • reliefweb.int — Global crisis & disaster tracker
  • freightwaves.com — Supply chain data
PRE-INVESTMENT DECISION CHECKLIST
  1. Macro environment — What is the rate cycle doing? Is recession risk rising?
  2. Geopolitical stability — Are there active conflicts or sanctions affecting the sector/region?
  3. Political calendar — Are upcoming elections likely to shift policy in this space?
  4. Regulatory environment — Are new rules or laws being proposed that affect this industry?
  5. Corporate health — Are earnings growing? Is debt manageable? What does insider activity say?
  6. Smart money positioning — What are institutions and gurus doing?
  7. Sentiment — Is the market fearful or greedy? Are valuations stretched?
  8. Currency & commodity exposure — How does FX or commodity prices affect this investment?
  9. Sector tailwinds/headwinds — Is this industry in a structural growth or decline phase?
  10. Exit strategy — What are your triggers to sell (up or down)?
Claude Trader analyzes these data points via AI — always verify with your own research before investing.